Why Catalonia is not independent

A year ago today, 1^st October 2017, the Catalonia held a referendum on independence from Spain. And it very much was “Catalonia held”; Spain wanted nothing to do with it. Unconstitutional, they said. Illegal, they said. Catalonia pushed ahead anyway, smuggling ballot boxes in via France (the civilians who claim they organised them apparently told Marseilles customs they were to make the world’s largest pyramid of plastic boxes – leave your suggestions for better excuses in the comments) and holding campouts at polling stations to try and keep them open with peaceful resistance. Unionists, or the vast majority of them, boycotted the vote. The result? 92.01% yes to independence (!) on 43.03% turnout (…).

The other result was images of Spanish police hitting peaceful protesters as they tried to force their way into polling stations. Smashing school windows to get inside. Ripping ballot boxes out of the hands of volunteers.

Two days later, 3^rd October, there was a general strike in Catalonia in response to the violence. Spanish politicians described the police response as “proportional” and argued they were just complying with the Constitutional Court’s order to prevent the vote. One man, Roger Español, lost the sight in one eye to a police rubber bullet, an arm banned for use by Catalan police since 2014, to this “proportional” violence.

By 10^th October, expectation was at fever pitch. The president, Carles Puigdemont, was due to give a speech to the Catalan Parliament. No one was sure what he’d say. Crowds of independence supporters gathered outside the park that houses the Catalan legislature. Would they get their wish that evening? Unionist supporters were wondering how the Spanish government would stop it. Would the rumours of mediation efforts through the Basque president prove true? In the end, Puigdemont declared the Catalan republic before, about eight seconds later, suspending the declaration to allow for dialogue. He had a very difficult choice between declaring the republic or not. He chose both. It pleased no one. He’s since said fell for “a trap” leading him to suspend the declaration of independence.

On 16^th October, the first pro-independence leaders were sent to prison. 10 days before the referendum, Guardia Civil gendarmes had burst into various Catalan ministries, looking to confiscate any material related to the organisation of the vote and holding a dozen senior officials for hours for questioning. Crowds of protesters gathered throughout the day, concentrating outside the Catalan economy ministry, trapping the civil guard inside. A couple of the parked police vehicles got badly damaged (well, a bit dented and covered in stickers). Part of this was due to people climbing on top of them, this including journalists looking for a better view and the heads of the two largest pro-independence organisations, Jordi Sànchez and Jordi Cuixart of ANC and Òmnium respectively, who got on the roof of the vehicles to tell the crowd to disperse (at least, eventually). For their roles in this protest, Sànchez and Cuixart are facing charges of rebellion. They have been held without bail for almost a year now; it’s currently uncertain whether their trial will start before Christmas or will be pushed back even further.

Later that month, on Friday 27^th October, the Catalan Parliament voted to declare the independent Catalan state in the form of a republic. It had all the trappings you’d expect: the momentous photos, deputies singing the Catalan anthem, the solemn signing ceremony, a boycott from unionists… I’m not sure what anyone actually did about implementing that declaration. Over that weekend, the entire government either travelled to Madrid or to Brussels, to respond to National Audience court summonses or try to avoid them. A Spanish government order, endorsed by the Senate, kicked the Catalan government out of office, dissolved the Parliament, and took direct control of Catalonia pending a new election.

That election forced by the Spanish government came on 21^st December. The winner, in the sense of being the largest party, was the unionist side, with Ciutadans getting 36 seats, two more than the largest pro-independence force. In total, however, the pro-union side fell well short of the 68 seats needed for a majority in the chamber, even with the support of CatComú-Podem, who have a middling stance, mainly wanting the whole issue to go away. The independence side, meanwhile, got 70 seats between the three parties, squeaking a majority which is heavily dependent on them not falling out. For what it’s worth, the party then in power in Spain got a whole 4 seats, down from 11. Not the resounding upswell of support for their strategy they might have hoped for.

Since then, you’ve had regular protests on every possible month-anniversary, people in and out of prison (mainly in, to be honest), a couple of countries rejecting the extradition of others on at least some of the charges (all the extradition warrants have now been revoked). Pro-independence parties were eventually able to invest a new president, their fourth choice (that’s another story). Things have happened. It’s all bubbled along. It’s not gone away. But now, with hopes following the change in Spanish government, most pro-independence politicians are talking, even before the first anniversary of the “binding” referendum, about trying to agree yet another vote, this time with Spanish support. Plus ça change.

So, why is Catalonia not independent?

One common view is that it was an unconstitutional attempt using illegal means, stopped by a vigorous, rigorous response from Spanish authorities. Another is that it was a perfectly justifiable aim for self-determination, which should be a universal right, stopped by a repressive response from Spanish authorities. Some say the Catalan authorities didn’t actually know what to do after the referendum, what their next steps were. Actually, I think most people say that.

The movement was always one-sided, opposed by Spain. So Catalonia either had to go the distance alone or force Spain to change its position. When they tried it unilaterally, they blinked first. The politicians either went to court or abroad. There were strikes, but against the violence, against the imprisonments, not in favour of independence. If you’d had a longer “countrywide standstill”, if you’d had Spanish buildings surrounded by peaceful protesters for days, Spain would have had to do something. The Catalan worry was that that something wouldn’t have been to sit down at the table, but to resort to further force to disperse demonstrators and to put *everyone* in prison.

The other factor that could force Spain to change course would be international support for the independence movement, or at least international opposition to their own path. But that’s not going to happen. Any international leader when asked about it trots out the “it’s an internal matter for Spain” line and breaths a sigh of relief they don’t have to get involved. A couple of courts denying Spanish extradition warrants, suggesting the charges are exaggerated, looks bad, but doesn’t do much beyond anger the unionist side.

I suppose the other factor that could force Spain to change would be a change of mind in the Spanish public, or Podemos (who support a referendum, but not independence) coming to power with a majority. But that’s just, like, not realistic.

Instead, Spain could strong-arm the stopping of the referendum to limited international repercussions. Actually, it turned out quite well, because the disruption they managed to cause, added to questions about the voting process itself, mean the referendum is not widely accepted as valid. And the courts can throw any Catalan official into jail for years, and large swathes of the country are happy at their defence of their country. The independence push is even regularly compared to events of the 23^rd February 1981, just years after Spain became democratic after Franco’s death, when Guardia Civil agents stormed the Congress, full for a vote on a new prime minister, and tried a full-on coup d’état.

Let’s be honest, they don’t know how to become independent. Not a clue. If they had overwhelming public support, say, 60%+, maybe. But they don’t. If they had meaningful international support, maybe. But they don’t. If they would go all in on mobilisations and peaceful resistance, maybe. But they won’t.

Catalonia might become independent some day, but not at this rate.